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UK Climate Projections 2009


Source: The UK Climate Projections website

The UK Climate Projections have been created to help the UK to plan for a changing climate. The Projections contain information on observed and future climate change, based on the latest scientific understanding.

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) give climate information for the UK up to the end of this century. Projections of future changes to our climate are provided, based on simulations from climate models.
The purpose of providing information on the possible future climate is to help those needing to plan how they will adapt to help society and the natural environment to cope with a changing climate.

The Projections show three different scenarios representing high, medium and low greenhouse gas scenarios -  and this can help to demonstrate the importance of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation).

The types of climate information provided are:

  • observed climate data (20th and 21st century historical information about temperature, precipitation, storminess, sea surface temperatures and sea level)
  • future climate projections (for temperature, precipitation, air pressure, cloud and humidity)
  • future marine and coastal projections (for sea level rise, storm surge, sea surface and sub-surface temperature, salinity, currents, and waves).

The UK Climate Projections are based on a new methodology designed by the Met Office, which allows a measure of the uncertainty in future climate projections to be included in the information.
UKCP09 is the fifth generation of climate information for the UK, and is the most comprehensive package produced to date. For the first time it provides probabilistic projections of climate change based on quantification of the known sources of uncertainty.

Along with the UKCP09 website a User Interface has been provided to facilitate access to the projections; User Guidance is available to support decisions related to using UKCP09. To support users in exploring potential impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation options, UKCP09 also offers two analytical tools - a weather generator and a supportive threshold detector.

More information about the UK Climate Projections is available on the UKCP website

The key findings from the UKCP09 Science Report are available here



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